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Mid Year Economic Notes

Sagiv Rosano

Aerial view of a Downtown Los Angeles at sunset

Single family starts are down 6.9% in the year and 16.1 % this quarter. Home prices are declining but sliding. California’s population decline by 1% helps with that home decline.But less people means less tax revenue and that is not great.

  • 1.123 mm units are available. That is a tight market inventory for homes.
  • 18.4% less units starts, that is bad for GCs.
  • Stock market is not out of the woods yet. Still, profit vs value ratios are not great from a historical level.
  • As labor bottle necks are getting better, it will get tighter. It’s not going to get better in the long run. It’s going to be a consistent issue.
  • 2030 is going to be a real recession year.

Commercial real estate is currently killing the small regional banks. They are sitting on a lot of bad paper and office product is getting killed and dragging with it many lenders and borrowers.

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